Backtest: mint/burn anomaly signal
The mint/burn-velocity signal replayed over real history for the same tokenized stock (Circle) on two different chains — same methodology, so it's chain-agnostic. It surfaces unusual supply spikes; note a spike on its own isn't a risk verdict (it can be demand, arbitrage/MEV, or genuine stress — the full composite adds premium + liquidity to tell them apart, and those can't be reconstructed historically).
Real on-chain mint/burn history for CRCLon on Solana — the same tokenized asset on both chains, run through the identical velocity detector. This is the mint/burn component in isolation; it marks buckets where net supply moved unusually vs the recent baseline. Hover the chart or expand the table for every bucket's exact numbers and the transactions behind them.
History reconstructed
91 × 12h buckets
Peak velocity
z = 34.4
2026-07-08 12:00
First 2σ anomaly
2026-05-08 00:00
vs recent baseline
Total 2σ anomalies
5
distinct buckets, marked on chart
Biggest anomaly · 2026-07-08 12:00 UTC: net +7,877 tokens minted in 12h — a 34.4σ jump vs the recent baseline. A real, verifiable supply spike (not synthetic) — though on a mint/redeem token a spike this size is often demand or arbitrage/MEV settlement, not distress on its own. Click through and judge for yourself: view on-chain tx ↗
Mint/burn component over time
one signal of four — not a full risk score- 2026-05-08 00:002.7σ3↗
- 2026-05-14 00:002.4σ5↗
- 2026-07-08 12:0034.4σ· peak9↗
- 2026-07-09 00:003.4σ3↗
- 2026-07-09 12:004.9σ8↗
100 = supply moving in line with baseline; dips = unusually large net mint/burn that period · hover any point for its exact numbers and transactions
All 91 buckets▾
| Bucket (UTC) | Net mint | Minted | Burned | Z-score | Proc. comp | Txns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 12:00 | 0.015 | 4 | 4 | 0.00 | 100 | 92↗ |
| 2026-04-06 00:00 | 644 | 648 | 4 | 0.00 | 100 | 22↗ |
| 2026-04-06 12:00 | 152 | 155 | 2 | 0.00 | 100 | 9↗ |
| 2026-04-07 00:00 | 207 | 208 | 1 | 0.00 | 100 | 5↗ |
| 2026-04-07 12:00 | -10 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 100 | 40↗ |
| 2026-04-08 00:00 | 0.082 | 0.430 | 0.348 | 0.00 | 100 | 11↗ |
| 2026-04-08 12:00 | 0.043 | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | 100 | 89↗ |
| 2026-04-09 00:00 | -1.0k | 2 | 1.0k | 0.00 | 100 | 75↗ |
| 2026-04-09 12:00 | 273 | 273 | 0.159 | 0.64 | 99 | 9↗ |
| 2026-04-10 00:00 | -0.187 | 0.086 | 0.273 | -0.07 | 100 | 6↗ |
| 2026-04-10 12:00 | -5 | 1 | 6 | -0.08 | 100 | 8↗ |
| 2026-04-13 00:00 | -273 | 0.348 | 274 | -0.79 | 100 | 10↗ |
| 2026-04-13 12:00 | 0.000 | 0.052 | 0.052 | 0.00 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-04-14 00:00 | 2 | 2 | 0.198 | 0.01 | 100 | 8↗ |
| 2026-04-15 00:00 | 0.000 | 0.094 | 0.094 | 0.00 | 100 | 4↗ |
| 2026-04-15 12:00 | 2 | 2 | 0.166 | 0.01 | 100 | 6↗ |
| 2026-04-16 00:00 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 0.305 | 0.00 | 100 | 7↗ |
| 2026-04-16 12:00 | -2 | 0.098 | 2 | -0.00 | 100 | 3↗ |
| 2026-04-17 00:00 | 0.000 | 0.094 | 0.094 | 0.00 | 100 | 4↗ |
| 2026-04-17 12:00 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.142 | 0.00 | 100 | 6↗ |
| 2026-04-20 12:00 | 0.000 | 0.048 | 0.048 | 0.00 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-04-21 00:00 | 0.000 | 0.048 | 0.048 | 0.00 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-04-22 12:00 | 0.096 | 0.096 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-04-23 00:00 | -0.096 | 0.122 | 0.218 | 0.00 | 100 | 5↗ |
| 2026-04-23 12:00 | 202 | 202 | 0.000 | 0.77 | 99 | 2↗ |
| 2026-04-24 00:00 | -202 | 0.010 | 202 | -0.81 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-04-24 12:00 | 0.041 | 406 | 406 | 0.00 | 100 | 4↗ |
| 2026-04-27 00:00 | 200 | 200 | 0.000 | 0.79 | 99 | 1↗ |
| 2026-04-27 12:00 | 10 | 210 | 200 | 0.01 | 100 | 3↗ |
| 2026-04-28 00:00 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | -0.02 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-04-29 00:00 | -2 | 0.000 | 2 | -0.04 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-04-29 12:00 | -0.219 | 0.000 | 0.219 | -0.03 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-04-30 00:00 | -0.259 | 0.010 | 0.270 | -0.03 | 100 | 3↗ |
| 2026-05-01 12:00 | -3 | 0.915 | 4 | -0.04 | 100 | 3↗ |
| 2026-05-04 12:00 | 287 | 287 | 0.000 | 1.24 | 99 | 4↗ |
| 2026-05-05 00:00 | -287 | 0.000 | 287 | -1.31 | 100 | 14↗ |
| 2026-05-06 00:00 | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.000 | -0.02 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-05-06 12:00 | -0.033 | 0.134 | 0.167 | -0.02 | 100 | 6↗ |
| 2026-05-07 00:00 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.008 | -0.02 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-05-07 12:00 | 0.000 | 208 | 208 | -0.02 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-05-08 00:00 | 589 | 623 | 34 | 2.67 | 97 | 3↗ |
| 2026-05-08 12:00 | 22 | 22 | 0.364 | 0.01 | 100 | 12↗ |
| 2026-05-11 00:00 | -177 | 0.000 | 177 | -0.85 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-05-11 12:00 | 42 | 43 | 0.375 | 0.12 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-05-12 00:00 | 0.000 | 0.131 | 0.131 | -0.07 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-05-13 00:00 | 188 | 188 | 0.000 | 0.77 | 99 | 1↗ |
| 2026-05-13 12:00 | -619 | 4 | 623 | -2.84 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-05-14 00:00 | 583 | 584 | 0.801 | 2.40 | 98 | 5↗ |
| 2026-05-14 12:00 | -0.020 | 0.123 | 0.143 | -0.07 | 100 | 4↗ |
| 2026-05-15 00:00 | 83 | 83 | 0.000 | 0.27 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-05-15 12:00 | 3 | 3 | 0.000 | -0.06 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-05-18 00:00 | 223 | 223 | 0.000 | 0.84 | 99 | 4↗ |
| 2026-05-19 00:00 | -1 | 0.000 | 1 | -0.09 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-05-21 00:00 | 0.000 | 0.089 | 0.089 | -0.09 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-05-21 12:00 | -0.696 | 0.000 | 0.696 | -0.09 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-05-26 12:00 | -1.1k | 20 | 1.1k | -4.54 | 100 | 9↗ |
| 2026-05-27 12:00 | -3 | 0.582 | 4 | -0.02 | 100 | 3↗ |
| 2026-05-28 00:00 | -0.047 | 0.000 | 0.047 | -0.00 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-01 12:00 | 11 | 33 | 22 | 0.04 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-06-02 00:00 | 0.073 | 0.073 | 0.000 | -0.00 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-06-02 12:00 | -0.073 | 0.000 | 0.073 | -0.01 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-03 12:00 | 10 | 10 | 0.000 | 0.03 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-05 12:00 | 2 | 3 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 100 | 8↗ |
| 2026-06-08 00:00 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.01 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-08 12:00 | 15 | 15 | 0.000 | 0.05 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-10 12:00 | 0.134 | 0.261 | 0.127 | -0.01 | 100 | 3↗ |
| 2026-06-12 12:00 | 0.492 | 314 | 313 | -0.00 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-06-17 12:00 | 19 | 19 | 0.000 | 0.07 | 100 | 5↗ |
| 2026-06-18 00:00 | 0.000 | 0.123 | 0.123 | -0.01 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-06-18 12:00 | 4 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.01 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-22 12:00 | -22 | 0.000 | 22 | -0.10 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-23 12:00 | 39 | 39 | 0.000 | 0.15 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-06-24 12:00 | 28 | 28 | 0.000 | 0.11 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-25 00:00 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | -0.00 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-25 12:00 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | -0.01 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-26 12:00 | -0.020 | 0.000 | 0.020 | -0.01 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-29 12:00 | 14 | 14 | 0.000 | 0.05 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-06-30 12:00 | -47 | 3 | 50 | -0.21 | 100 | 5↗ |
| 2026-07-01 00:00 | 79 | 79 | 0.000 | 0.33 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-07-01 12:00 | 235 | 235 | 0.000 | 1.00 | 99 | 1↗ |
| 2026-07-02 12:00 | -16 | 0.031 | 16 | -0.09 | 100 | 2↗ |
| 2026-07-07 12:00 | 1 | 1 | 0.391 | -0.02 | 100 | 6↗ |
| 2026-07-08 12:00 | 7.9k | 7.9k | 8 | 34.38 | 66 | 9↗ |
| 2026-07-09 00:00 | 3.1k | 3.1k | 4 | 3.41 | 97 | 3↗ |
| 2026-07-09 12:00 | 4.7k | 4.7k | 8 | 4.88 | 95 | 8↗ |
| 2026-07-10 00:00 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.000 | -0.18 | 100 | 1↗ |
| 2026-07-11 00:00 | 0.874 | 2 | 1 | -0.18 | 100 | 23↗ |
| 2026-07-11 12:00 | 0.079 | 0.970 | 0.891 | -0.18 | 100 | 18↗ |
| 2026-07-12 00:00 | 0.087 | 1 | 1 | -0.18 | 100 | 22↗ |
| 2026-07-12 12:00 | 0.186 | 1 | 1 | -0.18 | 100 | 22↗ |
| 2026-07-13 00:00 | -0.186 | 0.000 | 0.186 | -0.17 | 100 | 2↗ |
Mint: 6xHEyem9hmkGtVq6XGCiQUGpPsHBaoYuYdFNZa5ondo · generated 2026-07-13 17:10 UTC · static snapshot from scripts/backtest.ts, not live.